The Tukey depth process under short range dependence
2026 · draft
Zunnenberg, D. & Dürre, A. · Unpublished manuscript
We extend the theory of Tukey depth to the setting of absolutely regular (\(\beta\)-mixing) stochastic
processes. In particular, we generalize Massé's weak convergence result for the Tukey depth
process to dependent observations and establish convergence rates expressed in terms of the mixing
coefficients. An application extends the theory developed by Massé on depth weighted estimators.
First, we show that the assumptions on the weight can be significantly weakened, and secondly we show
that the observations can be taken as weakly dependent. A simulation study demonstrates the advantages
of depth weighted estimators under heavy tailed innovations.
Absolute regularity and maximal moment inequalities
2026 · in preparation
Zunnenberg, D. & Dürre, A. · Unpublished manuscript
This article establishes maximal moment inequalities for random variables satisfying absolute
regularity, uniformly over possibly infinite \(\mathcal{F}\). Our approach combines admissible
partition sequences theory with Pollard's truncation technique and recursive Berbee–Goldstein
maximal coupling. We discuss regularity via the Ossiander entropy integral and explain the structural
connection with the Boucheron–Bousquet–Lugosi–Massart inequality. Concentration
properties are similar to those of Johnson–Schechtman–Zinn and Kwapień–Szulga up
to possibly enlarged norms.
Absolute regularity and maximal moment inequalities II: Koltchinskii–Pollard entropy
2026 · in preparation
Zunnenberg, D. & Dürre, A. · Unpublished manuscript
This article gives a uniform moment inequality for empirical processes indexed by measurable functions
arising from absolutely regular random variables. The bound involves, as is the case in the classical
Koltchinskii–Pollard inequality, the uniform entropy integral with an additional factor
controlling the minimal measurable cover function. The norm in which this envelope is expressed is
related to the dependent Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund inequalities. A detailed overview of minimal
requirements to ensure measurability and finiteness of the respective Rosenthal type norms is provided.
Lin, Y. & Lucas, A. · Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2025-027/III
We introduce a new class of location-scale models for dynamic functional data in arbitrary but fixed
dimensions, where the location and scale functional parameters can evolve over time. A key feature of
the parameter dynamics in these models is its observation-driven nature, where the one-step-ahead
evolution is fully determined conditional on past observations, yet remains stochastic unconditionally.
We estimate the model using a likelihood-based approach designed for sparsely observed data and
establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the underlying static parameters that govern the
location-scale dynamics. The choice of objective function and the construction of the dynamics together
shield the time-varying location and scale parameters from the potentially distorting effects of
influential observations. Simulations reveal that our method can recover the unobserved location-scale
dynamics from sparse data, even in the presence of model mis-specification and substantial outliers. We
apply our framework to examine the intraday volatility dynamics of Pfizer stock returns during the
COVID-19 pandemic, and PM2.5 concentrations measured by low-cost sensors across Europe. The proposed
model exhibits robust performance in capturing dynamics for both datasets despite the presence of many
large shocks.
Research assistantship contribution